The information and opinions expressed below are based on my analysis of price behavior and chart activity

Tuesday, October 7, 2025

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Every morning, at about 8 AM CST, I post a short video highlighting where I see opportunities in the futures markets.  You can view my most recent video here   

 November Feeder Cattle (Daily) 

Today, November Feeder Cattle posted a contract high close, gaining 3.450, to settle at 364.250.  Trade volume was high today, and has been increasing over the past 3 sessions.  Increasing volume on 3 strong days up tells me that the bulls are back in charge of this market.   Looking at the chart above, you might see that today’s close broke the trendline resistance that I have drawn on the chart, across the highs from August and September. Today, I’d estimate the value to be near 362.000, which should become potential support.  The short-term moving averages that I use, the 5- and 10-day, (blue/red) made a bullish crossover with yesterday’s trade.  Those averages are near 358.095 and 356.820, respectively, and should also offer potential support levels.  The longer-term averages displayed (50-, 100- and 200-day and green, grey and purple) are well below the market price and not in play, to me.  The 50-day (green) is the closest, at 350.415 today.   From here, I could easily see a test of the contract high at 367.650 (Aug 27^th) and then a move over 370.000.  Stochastics (bottom subgraph) have ticked up into overbought (blue) status.  It seems to me that this market has been very comfortable being overbought this year, although this chart view only goes back to April. 

Fundamentally speaking, we have less cattle and more people to feed.  There are only a few things that can change this trend, in my opinion.  First off, unfortunately, it takes a while for the supply situation to resolve itself.  The border with Mexico remains closed, and news reports in the last day or two about an additional New World Screwworm case in Northern Mexico will likely ensure it stays that way.  We’re losing out on about 100,000 head of feeder weight cattle that normally come across every month.  It’s now October and the border has been closed for nearly the entire year.  That puts our domestic supply down about 1,000,000 head from where it could potentially be.  Even if the border was re-opened tomorrow, that’s a big deficit to make up.  And that would not solve our immediate supply constriction, as those animals can take anywhere from 12-18 months to make their way to slaughter.  Second, retail prices are high.  While customers at the meat counter may be complaining about high prices, we’re still seeing very strong demand.  The USA seems to have developed a palate for protein, and beef is still the best option.  Until consumers balk in great numbers, I don’t see that changing.  And third, if/when/until the Cattle on Feed data starts to show significant heifer retention, we’re not going to see any herd expansion. Normally, we’d get a look at the USDA’s heifer with this month’s Cattle On Feed data, but with the government currently shutdown, who knows if that’ll be released.  The heifer data is included quarterly and the next opportunity to see that will be in January, if October’s data is skipped over. 

Aggressive and well-margined traders may do well to consider long positions in November Feeder Cattle.  Be aware that this market makes large intra-day moves and manage your risk tolerance vs your account size accordingly.  (today’s trading range, not very large by what appears typical for this market, was $2,550 from high to low)  I would strongly suggest that you use protective Sell Stop orders against your long position. Perhaps near or below last Friday’s low of 351.050 or this week’s low of 351.350.  An upside target from here might be the previous contract high at 367.50, or perhaps the nice round number of 370.000.  Over the longer term, I won’t be surprised if Feeder Cattle get to 400.000, but it will take some time to get there.

Less aggressive traders (and Cattle producers that buy lighter-weight cattle) may do well to consider buying Call Options. November options expire in 44 days. 370.000 calls closed at 6.25 today, or $3,125 before your commissions/fees.  380.000 calls settled at about ½ of that, 3.150 or $1,575 before your commissions/fees.  Look to exit the positions, no matter what strike price you choose, at 2x what you paid for the option and re-examine the trend at that time.  I suggest that strategy because this market can been fickle and volatile and I’d hate to see you lose out on potential gains.  Call me or drop me an email if you need other suggestions. (scroll down for that)

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Every morning, at about 8 AM CST, I post a short video highlighting where I see opportunities in the futures markets.  You can view my most recent video here   

November Feeder Cattle (Weekly)

It’s only Tuesday and there are still 3 trading days left in the week, but so far this week, November Feeders have gained 8.825 from last Friday.   You might notice a few things by looking at the chart just above.  The 5- and 10-week moving averages (blue/red, 353.665 and 357.975, respectively) are still under the market price and in a bullish configuration.  They are very close to flipping to the bearish side, but the strength to start the week has kept them from crossing.  That seems like a similar occurrence back in the last week of February this year, at least to my eye.  The short-term averages got dangerously close to changing to bearish, never quite got there and the uptrend strengthened to where we are now.  I think that test of the 10-week average 4 weeks ago (or 4 bars back) showed the market held support.  Stochastics (bottom subgraph) are back into overbought territory, where this contract has been content to be for most of its life.  Trade over the past 2 weeks has been a little “heavy” if you will, with rallies getting suppressed by selling pressure.  Last weeks trade, while not a textbook Doji (opening and closing at the same price) does look like an equilibrium bar to me.  The Bulls had a chance to rally but couldn’t hold it, the Bears had a chance to crack the market, but they couldn’t hold it either. So we came back to about where we started.  If November Feeders can maintain their momentum, or at least not lose it, and close here, or higher, I think that’s a bullish sign.  As long as prices finish this week above the highs from last week (362.775) I think that further moves higher are in the cards. 

You can find the Seasonal Data from Barchart here.  According to their data, which goes back 15 years, November Feeder tend to trade higher in October, 9 out of the past 15 years, managing a monthly gain by Oct 31^st.  During the month of November, it’s almost 50/50 (8 out 15 years it tends to go higher) but usually works out to be a slight decline. 

If you like what you’ve read here and would like to see more like this from Walsh Trading, please Click here and sign up for our daily futures market email. 

Every morning, at about 8 AM CST, I post a short video highlighting where I see opportunities in the futures markets.  You can view my most recent video here   

Jefferson Fosse  Walsh Trading

Direct 312 957 8248 Toll Free 800 556 9411

jfosse@walshtrading.com   www.walshtrading.com

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